Business case & P&L

How big is this? (bottom-up)

Sized from suitable owner-occupied houses, not raw addresses. The credibility check is the beachhead share: staying in single digits keeps the plan defensible.

What actually moves the ask

Each driver swung to its downside and upside; bars show the change in cash needed. Sage shrinks the raise, terracotta grows it. This is the "we know our risks" slide, and it tells you which number to go validate first.

The road to Series A

Months come from the plan, not from hope: crank growth above and watch the dates pull in. Each milestone retires a risk, which is what a seed round is priced on.

1. Month 1

   Platform live in the beachhead

   proves the product

   Quote funnel, project timeline, property intelligence and the console running in SW16/SW17. First 5,000-letter mailing out with per-address pages.

   Gate: 5,000 letters · funnel conversion measured

2. Month 1

   First revenue install

   proves the product

   A stranger (not a friendly) goes quote → site visit → install on the standard price and template.

   Gate: 1 install · 1-day fit · reference customer

3. Month 4

   Template model proven

   proves the market

   Ten installs across at least three archetypes with no bespoke design work. Install actuals feeding back into templates and pricing.

   Gate: 10 installs · ≥3 archetypes · actuals captured

4. Month 4

   Monthly breakeven

   proves the economics

   EBITDA turns positive. The raise stops funding losses and starts funding growth: every pound after this buys expansion, not survival.

   Gate: EBITDA ≥ £0 · gross margin ≥ 45%

5. Month 7

   Repeatable acquisition

   proves the economics

   Mailing CAC holds at ~£145 across multiple campaigns; referrals appearing. LTV:CAC 11.9:1 with the service plan attached.

   Gate: CAC ≤ £189 · LTV:CAC ≥ 3

6. Month 11

   Second crew, founder off the tools

   proves execution

   Demand passes one crew's capacity. The playbooks and installer app spec have to work without the founder on site: the first real test of the operating system.

   Gate: >16 installs/month · crew 2 at ≥80% utilisation

7. Month 13

   £1m revenue run-rate

   proves scale

   Monthly revenue passes £83k. Expansion postcodes live across South London, property book past 100k homes.

   Gate: £83k+/month · 3+ outcodes active

8. Month 13

   Series A window opens

   proves scale

   Profitable, growing, with proprietary data compounding. Raise A to industrialise: warehouse, crews 3-5, national playbook. Or don't, and keep compounding.

   Gate: £1m+ run-rate · LTV:CAC ≥ 3 · breakeven behind you

# Dang, It's Hot: seed memo

## The ask
Raising £40k at £900k pre-money (4.3% to investors, 10% pool, founder keeps 85.7%). The raise covers £25k of setup and the cash trough of £28k in month 3, with a 25% buffer.

## The business
Fixed-price residential air conditioning, sold in under two minutes online and installed from pre-engineered templates. A proprietary property database (EPC + planning + our own audits) means we know the house before the customer finishes typing their postcode: quotes prefill, mailings carry per-address landing pages, and design is selection rather than survey.

## Market (bottom-up)
TAM £20.4bn (6.0m suitable UK homes × £3,400). SAM £1.5bn across South London. This plan captures 1,687 installs (£5.7m), just 6% of the SW16/SW17 beachhead: the numbers work without heroic share.

## Unit economics
£3,400 order value, 46% gross margin (£1,550 per install). CAC £145 via addressed mail after 15% referrals; the first install repays it 10.7x on its own. Blended LTV £1,726 with the service plan gives LTV:CAC of 11.9:1.

## The plan
110 installs and £374k revenue in year one; 1577 and £5.4m in year two, run by 22 crews. Monthly breakeven in month 4.

## Milestones (months from the model, not from hope)
- Month 1: Platform live in the beachhead. Gate: 5,000 letters · funnel conversion measured
- Month 1: First revenue install. Gate: 1 install · 1-day fit · reference customer
- Month 4: Template model proven. Gate: 10 installs · ≥3 archetypes · actuals captured
- Month 4: Monthly breakeven. Gate: EBITDA ≥ £0 · gross margin ≥ 45%
- Month 7: Repeatable acquisition. Gate: CAC ≤ £189 · LTV:CAC ≥ 3
- Month 11: Second crew, founder off the tools. Gate: >16 installs/month · crew 2 at ≥80% utilisation
- Month 13: £1m revenue run-rate. Gate: £83k+/month · 3+ outcodes active
- Month 13: Series A window opens. Gate: £1m+ run-rate · LTV:CAC ≥ 3 · breakeven behind you

## Biggest sensitivity
Founder draw (£4500 to £1500) moves the cash requirement by £6,600 to -£3,525. It is first on the validation list.

## Why this wins
Every install feeds actuals back into templates, pricing and the property database. The data asset compounds; a competitor starting later starts from zero.